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Gold Market Fundamentals
Fear of tapering continuous to weigh on gold prices but news that Indian Government raised jewelry import taxes to 15% from 10% yesterday has left the market off balance.It would seem like the gold market is fearful of even a minimal tapering level, with some estimates for the Fed today pegging the tapering pace at only 5 or 10 billion per month. Gold derivative holdings were unchanged yesterday afternoon, which isn't surprising considering the looming FOMC decision this afternoon. While gold hasn't paid that much attention to classic physical supply news lately the gold market might eventual garner some support from news that  Russian miner overnight announced a rather significant decline in profitability in the 1st half, as that highlights the potential threat against future global gold supply, especially in the event that gold prices settle down around or below the August lows. With gold falling consistently from the late August highs, it is possible that gold has fully factored and npw expects some form of tapering and therefore a delay in tapering could catch the bear camp temporarily leaning to hard on the downside view. It is also possible that a 5 billion tapering could catch some shorts by surprise but a $ 10 billion per month tapering or more might leave the bear camp with an ongoing edge. On the other hand, once the tapering threat os open and notorious it is possible that a fresh 4 week low in the Greenback could begin to provide some support for the gold price.


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